Trends in Debt Valuations of Private Equity–Backed Dermatology Groups Before and During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Abstract

Private equity (PE) firms have invested in and consolidated dermatology practices. Private equity firms typically operate by conducting leveraged buyouts, which occur when target companies are acquired with capital from PE firms and a combination of debt, which may include debt instruments held in business development corporations (BDCs). To investigate the valuations of dermatology PE-backed group (DPEG) debt instruments in BDCs' portfolios both before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. This cross-sectional study, conducted from August 1, 2016, to August 31, 2021, examined public financial statements filed by BDCs lending to DPEGs. The public filings of BDCs were searched from inception of the DPEG's debt instrument in a BDC's portfolio, and the amortized cost and fair value of each debt instrument were tabulated. The premium or discount at which each debt instrument was valued at a given time was calculated by dividing the difference between the fair value and the amortized cost by the amortized cost. Different testing methods were conducted for normal or nonnormal data to test differences in debt valuations across all DPEGs between 2 consecutive or nonconsecutive quarters. The search of the public filings found 10 BDCs containing data on 9 unique DPEGs. Overall, there were 15 trackable DPEG debt instruments because multiple BDCs can hold debt instruments for a given DPEG. Data were available from August 2016 through August 2021. During the study time frame, the amortized cost of the loans for an individual DPEG ranged from a low of $1.7 million to a high of $100 million. The valuation of debt instruments was stable for many DPEGs until some were discounted starting in May 2018, with a significant decrease from May 2019 to August 2019 (-1.4%; 95% CI, not applicable; P = .04), prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. Another significant decrease occurred during the pandemic from February to June 2020 (-9.0%; 95% CI, -13.6% to -4.4%; P = .002). US Dermatology Partners decreased to the lowest valuation (Golub BDC, -39.7%; TCG BDC Inc, -48.8%; TCG BDC II, -48.8%) of the DPEGs examined in November 2020 even after receiving a $10 million forgivable Small Business Administration Paycheck Protection Program loan in May 2020. After pharmaceutical companies announced effective COVID-19 vaccine candidates in November 2020, there was a modest and significant improvement in debt valuations (2.3%; 95% CI, 0.2%-0.4%; P = .03); however, they remained discounted. Only PhyNet Dermatology's debt instruments improved to a premium valuation by August 2021. Debt valuations of some DPEGs found in this cross-sectional study suggest a lower probability that their loans will be repaid in full. This could be a signal that some DPEGs are not performing well financially.