Abstract
Introduction: by late 2019, China notified a new disease rising, and with the agent’s identification, it was called COVID-19. Despite the efforts of the World Health Organization (WHO) and worldwide countries, the disease spread out of control; on March 11, WHO declared the pandemic state. Brazil is the biggest country in South America, demarcated into 26 states with different economic, cultural, and social aspects. Paraná is one of the Brazilian federative units, it is the sixth more economically important and ranks second in Education. Its first COVID-19 case was confirmed on March 12, 2020, and the first death was on March 27, two weeks after the first death in Brazil. Objective: This study objective is to determine the mortality and case-fatality rates of COVID-19 in the State of Paraná, Brazil, from March 1, 2020, to March 31, 2021. Methods: It is an ecological time-series study, using all cases (854,326) and deaths (17,229 deaths) of COVID-19 reported in public and official database of the State of Paraná Health Department. Case fatality and mortality rates were stratified by sex and age. For trend analysis, the period was divided into a first “wave” (March to November 2020) and a second “wave” (December 2020 to March 2021). The Prais-Winsten regression model for population mortality and case-fatality rates allowed classifying whether it increased, decreased, or was flat. Results: Women were more affected by the number of cases, with 454,056 cases (53.15%) confirmed and 7,257 fatalities (42.12%). A total of 400,270 men (46.85%) were infected and 9,972(57.87%) died. For the first year of COVID-19, in the State of Paraná, the incidence was calculated as 7404.12/100,000 inhabitants, the mortality was 149.32/100,000 inhabitants, and the case-fatality rate was 2.02%. We saw a tendency for decreasing the case-fatality rate (DPC = -0,18; p<0,001). The mortality and incidence showed an increasing trend (DPC=1,13, p<0,001; DPC=1,58, p<0,001, respectively). Conclusion: The level and variability of transmission during this first year of pandemic suggest that the disease in the State of Paraná was never under control.
Highlights
By late 2019, China notified a new disease rising, and with the agent’s identification, it was called COVID-19
For the first year of COVID-19, in the State of Paraná, the incidence was calculated as 7404.12/100,000 inhabitants, the mortality was 149.32/100,000 inhabitants, and the case-fatality rate was 2.02%
Study Population and Eligibility Criteria Were included in the study all the cases and deaths by COVID-19 that occurred in Paraná and were reported by the municipalities (854,326 cases and 17,229 deaths) from March 2020 to March 2021
Summary
By late 2019, China notified a new disease rising, and with the agent’s identification, it was called COVID-19. Despite the efforts of the World Health Organization (WHO) and worldwide countries, the disease spread out of control; on March 11, WHO declared the pandemic state. At the end of 2019, Chinese public health authorities reported a new viral respiratory disease surge to the world. The World Health Organization (WHO) announced the new coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and declared the pandemic state on March 11, 2020, despite the global efforts to contain the spread of the disease[1]. By July 13, 2021, Brazil had 19.151.993 accumulated cases and 535.838 deaths, with an incidence of 9113.6 new cases by 100,000 inhabitants, mortality of 255.0 deaths by 100,000 inhabitants, and lethality of 2.8%2 being ranked as the second nation in the global death toll due to COVID-193
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