Trends in Canadian Mortality by Pension Level: Evidence from the CPP and QPP

Abstract

This article looks at the mortality of Canadian pensioners subdivided by pension level using data from the Canada Pension Plan (CPP) and Québec Pension Plan (QPP). Differing pension levels (11 groups) are found to give rise to significant levels of mortality inequality at age 65, with a declining inequality gap as cohorts get older. We also find that levels of inequality have increased slightly over time, and that the QPP pensioners exhibit greater levels of inequality than CPP. Additionally, we find strong, but indirect, evidence among the lowest pension groups for a healthy immigrant effect.We fit a range of multipopulation stochastic mortality models to the CPP and QPP data and find that the common age effect model satisfies a range of quantitative and qualitative criteria. The model allows us to distill further detail from the underlying mortality data as well as provide a coherent basis for forecasting mortality and assessing uncertainty in these forecasts.Lastly, we use clustering methods to consider how significant the differences are between the 11 groups.