Abstract
Objective: The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of three temporal components of AIDS incidence (i.e., age, period and cohort) on individuals aged 50 or older living in Niteroi, Rio de Janeiro (Brazil). Methods: Age-specific incidence rates were calculated from 1982–2011. Negative binomial and Poisson models were used to analyze the risk of AIDS by age, period and cohort. Results: The risk of AIDS in men was 2.45 times higher than in women, regardless of age and period (p-value < 0.001). The incidence of AIDS in individuals older than 69 years was 7-fold lower than in those aged 50–59 years (p-value < 0.001). A decreasing trend in AIDS risk was observed from the youngest cohort (≥1940) to the oldest (1910–1919). From 1982 to 2006, we could detect an increasing trend in AIDS risk in the population aged 50 years or older. A peak in rates was detected in the period from 2002–2006. The incidence rates in 2002–2006 were six times higher than those in 1987–1991 (p-value < 0.001), independent of age and sex (p-value < 0.001). Conclusions: An increase of AIDS risk in older people was detected. This group should not be neglected by public health programs.
Highlights
The increase in life expectancy over the past few decades has resulted in an accelerated population aging process
The aim of this study was to analyze AIDS incidence from 1982–2011 in individuals fifty years old or older living in Niteroi, Rio de Janeiro by sex, age, period and birth cohort
Niteroi is a large urban center neighboring the city of Rio de Janeiro; in 2013, it had 70 public and 280 private health institutions that covered a population of 487,562 [13]
Summary
The increase in life expectancy over the past few decades has resulted in an accelerated population aging process. It is estimated that people older than 59 years currently represent 11% of the global population, and this percentage is expected to increase to 16.5% by 2030. In Brazil, in 2012, estimates indicated that the proportion of the total population older than 59 years is approximately. 11.3% (22 million people) and that this value will double over the 20 years. In developed countries, such as the United Kingdom, Japan, France, Italy and Germany, the percentage of seniors already exceeds 20% of the population. In the United States (USA) this percentage is approximately 16% [1,2].
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