Abstract
BackgroundGlobally, by the end of 2018, 37.9 million people were living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). Sub-Saharan Africa carries the highest burden with an estimated 71% of the global total. In Ethiopia, an estimated 715 404 people were living with HIV in 2015 and this increased to 722 248 in 2017. This study was to explore the trends and spatial distributions of HIV cases in Ethiopia.MethodsIn this study, we explored the spatial and temporal distribution of persons living with HIV in Ethiopia using data from 2005, 2011, and 2016 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Surveys (EDHS). Geographic information system (Getis-Ord Gi* statistics) and spatial scan statistics (SaTScan) were used for exploratory and confirmatory spatial analyses respectively.ResultsThe overall prevalence of HIV in Ethiopia unveiled inconsistent trends, with the majority of areas showing decreasing trends. Hot spot clusters exhibited in all the three surveys, which include areas where Amhara, Afar and Tigray regions share neighbourhoods. In 2005 regionally, Gambella, Addis Ababa, and Harari had the highest prevalence at 6.0, 4.7 and 3.5%, respectively. While in the 2016 survey the highest prevalence (4.8%) was observed in Gambella regional state followed by Addis Ababa (3.4%).ConclusionsThe distribution of HIV infection in Ethiopia is not random in all the three EDHS surveys. High clusters of HIV cases were consistently observed in Addis Ababa and neighbouring areas of the Afar Tigray and Amhara regional states and central Oromia. This analysis revealed that there are still areas which need studying with respect to the epidemic of HIV. In this regard Addis Ababa, certain areas of Amhara regional state, large areas of Afar region and central Oromia require special attention.
Highlights
By the end of 2018, 37.9 million people were living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)
Globally, over 76 million people have been infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), and HIV infection has contributed more than 35 million deaths since its emergence
In the 2011 survey the magnitude of HIV was increased in most of the regional areas compared to the 2005 survey
Summary
By the end of 2018, 37.9 million people were living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). The two administrative regions, Gambella and Addis Ababa persist with high load of HIV cases for long time so far. Addis Ababa’s high load is related to the trends in distribution that the HIV epidemic in Ethiopia is primarily associated with areas of urban concentration (5.1% in cities above 50 thousand compared to 3.1% in smaller cities and 0.6% in rural areas) [4]. This is related to being a home for high risk groups of population including commercial sex workers, long track drivers and military. The lowest prevalence was estimated to be in the South Nations, Nationalities and People Region (SNNPR) (0.5%) and the Benishangule Gumuz Region (0.6%), signifying the presence of geographical variations [5]
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