Trends and random walks in macroeconomic time series: A reappraisal

Abstract

In this paper we re-analyze the nature of the trend (deterministic or stochastic) in the Nelson–Plosser macroeconomic data set from an alternative method relative to the previous studies. We underline the effects of large, but infrequent shocks due to major economic or financial events on US macroeconomic time series, such as the Great Depression, World War II and recessions, using outlier methodology. We apply an ADF test corrected for detected outliers based on intervention models and calculate the specific critical values of the unit root tests for each series. The results point out the rejection of the unit root null hypothesis for five of the fourteen Nelson–Plosser macroeconomic time series, namely real GNP, real per capita GNP, industrial production, employment and unemployment.