Trends and projections of ovarian cancer incidence in Hong Kong: A population-based study.

Abstract

This study analyzed the incidence of ovarian cancer in Hong Kong and its association with age, calendar period and birth cohort, made projections through 2030, and attributed differences in new cancer cases to demographic and epidemiologic changes. Incidence data for ovarian cancer were obtained from the Hong Kong Cancer Registry. We employed the age-period-cohort modeling approach to investigate the association between ovarian cancer incidence and age in Hong Kong women, with particular emphasis on examining the changing trends of period and cohort effects on incidence. We projected the incidence of ovarian cancer in Hong Kong between 2018 and 2030 and attributed the rise in new cancer cases to epidemiologic and demographic shifts. Between 1990 and 2017, a total of 11 182 women were diagnosed with ovarian cancer in Hong Kong. Crude and age-standardized rates increased from 8.2 and 7.8 per 100 000 person-years to 16.3 and 11.5 per 100 000 person-years, respectively. New cases of ovarian cancer rose from 225 in 1990 to 645 in 2017. We observed an increased risk of ovarian cancer throughout the study period and in the post-1940 birth cohort. The projected incidence rate and new cases of ovarian cancer are expected to continue growing due to demographic and epidemiologic changes such as fertility patterns and lifestyle factors, with an estimated 981 cases in 2030. The period risk and cohort risk of ovarian cancer among Hong Kong women is increasing. Demographic and epidemiologic changes may continue to increase ovarian cancer incidence and new cases in Hong Kong.