Trends and Projections in Breast Cancer Mortality among four Asian countries (1990\u20132017): Evidence from five Stochastic Mortality Models

Abstract

The current study aimed to explore some important insights into the breast cancer mortality (BCM) trends and projections among four Asian countries by using five advanced stochastic mortality models. BCM data over 28 years from 1990–2017 with ages 20–84 were retrieved from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2017 for four Asian countries, namely, China, India, Pakistan, and Thailand. Five stochastic mortality models with the family of generalized age-period-cohort were implemented to find the present and future BCM trends in these four Asian countries. Based on Cairns-Blake-Dowd (CBD) model and Lee-Carter model (LCM), overall, results revealed that BCM increased with the passage of time. Aging factor was the most influential factor of elevated BCM in each Asian country under consideration. Projection of BCM showed that mortality rates might continue to grow with time, especially in older ages in each Asian country under study. The highest forecasted BCM rates were observed in Pakistan as compared to other countries. The obvious increase in BCM suggested that earlier tactics should be implemented to reduce the subsequent morbidity and mortality due to breast cancer. The last but not least, some additional tactics to mitigate the BCM in older ages must be adopted.