Trends and predictors of unfilled emergency medicine residency positions: A comparative analysis of the 2023 and 2024 Match cycles.

Abstract

The emergency medicine (EM) landscape has evolved due to the increasing number of programs paired with fewer applicants. This study analyzed the characteristics of EM residency programs associated with unfilled positions during the 2024 Match and compared them with data from the 2023 Match to identify persistent and emerging trends influencing these outcomes. In this cross-sectional, observational study, we investigated factors associated with unfilled EM residency positions in the 2024 Match. We used publicly accessible data from the National Resident Matching Program. To identify program-level predictors of unfilled positions, we constructed a Bayesian hierarchical logistic regression model, incorporating data from the 2023 Match season. In 2024, 54 out of 281 (19.2%) residency programs remained unfilled. Our Bayesian analysis reaffirmed that smaller program size, geographical location, prior osteopathic accreditation, and corporate ownership continue to be significant factors. Programs with vacancies in the previous year were also more likely to remain unfilled. Thus, several factors identified in 2023 remained associated with this year's Match outcomes, with the impact of previous unfilled positions being particularly pronounced. This study identified several factors associated with a greater likelihood of having unfilled EM residency positions, with previous unfilled positions emerging as the most significant predictor. These findings offer critical insights for residency programs and governing bodies, providing a basis for enhancing recruitment strategies, addressing the cyclical nature of unfilled positions, and tackling workforce challenges in EM.