Abstract
This paper analyzes trends and possible future developments in global wood-product markets and discusses implications for the Swedish forest sector. Four possible futures, or scenarios, are considered, based on qualitative scenario analysis. The scenarios are distinguished principally by divergent futures with respect to two highly influential factors driving change in global wood-product markets, whose future development is unpredictable. These so-called critical uncertainties were found to be degrees to which: (i) current patterns of globalization will continue, or be replaced by regionalism, and (ii) concern about the environment, particularly climate change, related policy initiatives and customer preferences, will materialize. The overall future of the Swedish solid wood-product industry looks bright, irrespective of which of the four possible futures occurs, provided it accommodates the expected growth in demand for factory-made, energy-efficient construction components. The prospects for the pulp and paper industry in Sweden appear more ambiguous. Globalization is increasingly shifting production and consumption to the Southern hemisphere, adversely affecting employment and forest owners in Sweden. Further, technical progress in information and communication technology (ICT) is expected to lead to drastic reductions in demand for newsprint and printing paper. Chemical pulp producers may profit from a growing bio-energy industry, since they could manufacture new, high-value products in integrated bio-refineries. Mechanical pulp producers cannot do this, however, and might suffer from higher prices for raw materials and electricity.
Highlights
The Swedish forest industry accounts for 15 to 20% of the country’s total industrial investment, employing around 180,000 people nationally, more than a quarter of total industrial employment [1].Sweden is a major force in global forest-product markets, as it is the world’s second largest exporter of paper, pulp and sawn timber [2]
The scenarios are defined by divergent futures associated with two critical uncertainties: the degrees to which (i) current patterns of globalization will continue or be replaced by regionalism, and (ii) concern about the environment, climate change, related policy initiatives and customer preferences, will materialize
The scenarios are distinguished principally by divergent futures with regard to the two critical uncertainties mentioned in the methods section
Summary
The Swedish forest industry accounts for 15 to 20% of the country’s total industrial investment, employing around 180,000 people nationally (including indirect employment in sectors that supply goods and services to the forest industry), more than a quarter of total industrial employment [1].Sweden is a major force in global forest-product markets, as it is the world’s second largest exporter of paper, pulp and sawn timber [2]. It may be concluded that developments in global forest-product markets are likely to have far-reaching implications for the Swedish forest sector, affecting land-use, investments in forest management, employment and regional development. The objectives of this paper are to present and analyze possible future developments in global forest-product markets and discuss the overall implications of these developments for the Swedish forest sector, with a time horizon of about forty years (i.e., around 2050). After presenting trends and possible future developments, with regard to major drivers of change in global forest-product markets, different methods for futures studies are briefly reviewed, focusing on scenario analysis. Scenario analysis is applied to address four alternative futures, differing with respect to developments in global wood-product markets and resulting demand pressure on the Swedish forest resource. The paper ends by discussing the findings and presenting conclusions regarding their implications for the Swedish forest industry
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