Abstract
The purpose of this study is to better understand trends and influences of terrorist behavior of al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) and related groups during and directly following Operation Iraqi Freedom. Terror attacks in Iraq carried out by AQI from 2003 through 2012 were analyzed, with data taken from the Global Terrorism Database. Trends in the data were examined to determine the impact of a variety of events including religious holidays, elections both in Iraq and in the USA, the US troop ‘surge’, the Anbar Awakening, the killing of terrorist leaders, and the drawdown and eventual withdrawal of US troops from the country. Changes tracked included frequency fluctuations of attacks, various types and targets of attacks, and severity of attacks (measured by the number of fatalities an attack produced). The analyses indicate that when planning and conducting terrorist attacks, AQI terrorists are tactical though not necessarily driven by a commitment to regularly carry out attacks in connection with certain significant dates or events. Also, of all groups targeted, Shia Muslim targets suffered the most vicious attacks, especially after the withdrawal of US and coalition forces.
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