Trends and forecast of hepatocellular carcinoma in Nantong, China: mortality rates from 1999 to 2011

Abstract

To investigate the mortality rates of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in Nantong,China from 1999 to 2011, in order to uncover dynamic trends and provide reasoned advice on intervention strategies to decrease HCC incidence and mortality in Nantong in the future. Versions 10 and 9 of the WHO International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10 and ICD-9) were used to determine the number of HCC deaths in Nantong,China for the study's range of years. Thex2 test was applied to compare the HCC mortality rates according to sex and age. The Grey system GM(1,1) model was used to predict the next-5-year HCC mortality for Nantong. Analysis of the standardized mortality in Nantong showed a slight decreasing trend from 1999 to 2011 (x2=57 545.98, P less than 0.001),with males showing a steeper decrease than females. The total mortality of HCC during these years was 53.41 per 100,000 people,with mortality among males being significantly higher than that among females (80.81 per 100,000 people vs. 26.94 per 100,000 people; x2=13 625.42, P less than 0.001). In general, HCC mortality increased with increase in age (general trend:x2=57 545.98, P less than 0.001; male trend: x2=39 878.8, P less than 0.001; female trend: x2=20 105.3, P less than 0.001). However,HCC mortality increased significantly in women after the age of 40 and in men after the age of 35. The GM(1,1) equation was: Yt=-1265.28e(-0.0375t)+1315.5, which predicted that the HCC mortality will decrease to 25.56 per 100,000 people in 2016. Although HCC mortality generally decreased from 1999 to 2011, the rate remained high. Public health intervention strategies may be more effective if they focus on males over the age of 35 and females over the age of 40.