Trends and factors of the demographic development of Tver oblast in the 20th — early 21st centuries

Abstract

The article summarizes the reproductive and migration development of one of the most demographically-disadvantaged regions of Russia — Tver oblast, where depopulation has been taking place for more than 50 years. Thus, in 30 years, from January 1989 to January 2019, the population of Tver oblast, as well as its population in working age, decreased by 1.3 times, the number of women of the most active reproductive age (20-39 years) — by 1.5 times. The factors of this negative process are substantiated in the article. First, during the War of 1941-1945 this territory was occupied for three years and became the site of some of the bloodiest battles of this war, including the Battle of Rzhev. Second, from the region in the pre-revolutionary and post-war Soviet times actively went the settlement of the rear and suburban regions, first of all, North European and Asian Russia. Third, the region is on the way between the two main migration recipients («magnets») of Russia — the Moscow and Leningrad macroregions, and its population is steadily decreasing due to outflow to two capitals. The article reveals the extent of demographic, including migration, losses of the region in the later Soviet and post-Soviet times. The circle of the closest migration partners of Tver oblast and the nature of population exchange with them are identified. Changes in the direction and closeness of the region's migration links over the past fifty years have been investigated. The origin of structural waves in the sex-age pyramid of Tver oblast for a century has been substantiated. It is argued to what demographic structural and socio-economic consequences such development of the region has led to. It is concluded about the place and prospects of Tver oblast and its population in modern market economy Russia.