Trends and Driving Forces of Carbon Emissions from Energy Consumption: A Case Study of Nanjing, China

Kong-Qing Li,Rui-Wen Chu,Ran Lu,Li-Qun Zhu,Dou-Dou Ma

doi:10.3390/su10124348

Abstract

Based on the scientific calculation of carbon emissions from energy consumption in Nanjing, this paper analyzed the driving forces of carbon emissions from 2000 to 2016 by using the stochastic impacts by regression on population, affluence and technology (STIRPAT) model. The results show that from 2000 to 2016, the energy carbon emissions of Nanjing were on the rise; the urbanization rate, population, GDP per capita, and energy intensity had a significant positive impact on the growth of carbon emissions in Nanjing, China. Based on this, we presented five development scenarios to analyze the future trend of carbon emissions of the city. By contrast, the growth rate of carbon emissions from energy consumption is the slowest when the population maintains a low growth rate and the GDP per capita and technical level maintain high growth. This indicates a better urban development strategy in which industrial restructuring must be associated with talent structure adjustment to decarbonize the urban economy, and the extensive urban sprawl development approach might need to be changed.

Highlights

With rapid economic and population growth, we have come to rely more and more on massive energy consumption for survival and development
How to respond to the confusions? We argue that the process of urbanization, economic growth as well as industrial structure are highly dependent upon each other, and their interdependence determines the energy consumption and carbon emissions
The most important reason is that secondary industry, especially petrochemical industry, contributes most of the carbon emissions

Summary

Introduction

With rapid economic and population growth, we have come to rely more and more on massive energy consumption for survival and development. Increased energy consumption has caused huge carbon emissions which threaten our living environment. The Fourth Assessment Report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) indicates that carbon emissions from global energy consumption in 2006 accounted for 86% of total carbon emissions. According to the statistics from the International Energy Agency (IEA), China replaced the United States as the world’s largest carbon emitter in 2007. “effective control of total carbon emissions” and “implementation of carbon emission reduction commitments” have been included directly in the 13th Five-Year Plan by the Chinese central government. Because cities are the key carbon emitters [1], Chinese cities, especially inshore developed cities, face severe challenges in reducing carbon emissions while striving to keep the economy growing [2]

Methods

Results

Discussion

Conclusion