Trends and determinants of IT-BPM exports in India

Abstract

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to present an overview of trends of Indian information technology and business processing management (IT-BPM) sector and to analyse the determinants of IT-BPM sector during the period 1991-2014. Design/methodology/approach The study is based on annual data collected from National Association of Software and Service Companies and Department of Electronic and Information Technology for the period 1991 to 2014. The methodology adopted for studying the objectives are simple averages, percentages, ratios, growth rates, graphs prepared on the basis of data from the IT-BPM sector and regression analysis. Trends and patterns in key variables, such as total revenue, domestic revenue, export revenue, employment and exports of the IT-BPM sector have been examined. Factors influencing IT-BPM export growth have been analysed using ordinary least square multiple regression model, with growth rates of gross domestic product (GDP), labour productivity, exchange rate and previous year’s export, as the explanatory variables. Findings The export revenue from IT-BPM sector increased continuously over the years, at an average growth rate of 36.60 per cent during the period 1991 to 2014. Similarly, domestic revenue of IT-BPM sector also increased, but at a lower growth rate. This is because domestic market in India is captured by multinational giants against Indian firms, which do not possess full comparative advantage in the case of IT-BPM sector. Indian firms are producing low skill activities required for production, mainly concentrated only in the export sector. Direct employment, excluding hardware from IT-BPM sector, has grown at an average rate of 18.08 per cent over the study period. The determinants of IT-BPM exports indicated previous year’s export demand to be significantly contributing the highest to export growth rate. This was followed by GDP growth rate, implying that overall growth of the economy leads to significant increase in export growth. Increased labour productivity followed next in significantly encouraging export growth. Research limitations/implications Generalization of the results may not be possible, as Indian conditions and policies vary. Practical implications The paper has implications for the expansion of domestic market, diversification of trade and products, innovations for increasing competitiveness and sustainability in the global market in the wake of stiff competitions from new competitors. Originality/value This paper focuses on originality in analysis of determinants of export growth.