Abstract
Trends and variability of annual precipitation total, annual number of rainy days and two climate change related precipitation indices named Simple Daily Intensity Index (SDII) and Precipitation Concentration Index (PCI) have been investigated in this study. The analysis was based on daily and monthly precipitation data of 35 observatory stations all over Bangladesh for the study period of 1971-2010. Mann Kendall test was performed to detect the trend and Sen’s slope method to determine the magnitude of change. The results indicate statistically significant (95% confidence level) negative trend in 4 stations and significant positive trend in 2 stations for annual precipitation total. Significant positive trend in 9 stations for annual number of rainy days, significant negative trend in 6 stations for SDII and for PCI, and significant negative trend in 6 stations were found all over Bangladesh in this study. The values of PCI indicate strongly irregular precipitation distribution in South Eastern Region (SER) and mostly irregular distribution in other regions. On the other hand values of SDII indicate strong precipitation intensity in SER and mostly moderate intensity in other regions all over the country.
Highlights
Climate variability and its unfriendly concomitants are of growing concern worldwide
Mann-Kendall test [15] [16] was used to analyze the trends in annual rainfall total, annual number of rainy days, Simple Daily Intensity Index (SDII) and Precipitation Concentration Index (PCI); in addition, the Sen’s slope method [17] was applied to determine the magnitude of change
SDII depends on annual rainfall amounts and annual number of rainy days
Summary
Climate variability and its unfriendly concomitants are of growing concern worldwide. Bangladesh has been termed by IPCC as one of the most vulnerable countries in the world, which is prone to climate change. High intensity of rainfall and uneven temporal and spatial distribution is creating flooding and longer dry spells are evoking droughty conditions [3]. As a whole, these have profound impact on agriculture [4] and food security of the country will be at risk [5]. For Bangladesh, a number of studies have been carried out on average precipitation and temperature pattern [8]-[11], research on intensity and distribution of rainfall has hardly been done
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