Abstract
In this study we aim to fit a trend surface model for Hand, Foot And Mouth Disease (HFMD) in Sarawak and also check the adequacy of the model obtained. For this, the epidemiological data of year 2012(outbreak year) and 2011 are used. Models were built up to second order polynomial based on the idea that number of HFMD cases can be described by regression residual analysis. With Moran I statistic, residuals from all the trend surface models were examined for spatial auto correlation. All six trend surface models for 2011 data had residuals that were not spatially auto correlated.However, one model for 2012 data showed spatial auto correlation. The best model for each year of the two years that represent disease outbreak and non-outbreak situations was selected based on Mallows’ Cp statistic. These models could be used to predict the number of cases for locations of interest.
Highlights
Hand, Food and Mouth Disease (HFMD) is defined as a common viral illness that usually affects infants and children younger than 5 years old (CDC, 2011)
The best model selected is a second order polynomial. This means that the HFMD cased in Sarawak for year 2012 has a quadratic surface
Meaning that the disease pattern changes faster as we move along the east-west direction compared to north-south direction in an outbreak situation
Summary
Food and Mouth Disease (HFMD) is defined as a common viral illness that usually affects infants and children younger than 5 years old (CDC, 2011). It is characterized by fever, blister-like sores in the mouth and a skin rash (CDC, 2011). From (Sarawak Health Department, 2006), it is known that individual cases and outbreaks of HFMD occur worldwide. It becomes more frequent in summer and early autumn (in countries with a temperate climate). Between 15 April to June 1997 in Sarawak, previously healthy infants and young children died after a short febrile illness against a background of an outbreak of HFMD in the state
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