Trend, seasonality, cycle, and irregular fluctuations in primary productivity at Lake Tahoe, California-Nevada, USA

Abstract

Primary productivity has been measured routinely at Lake Tahoe since 1967, and a number of mechanisms underlying variability in the productivity record have now been identified. A long-term trend due to nutrient loading dominates the series. Seasonality also is prominent, apparently controlled by direct physical factors unrelated to the trophic cascade. A 3-yr cycle has been detected and several possible mechanisms are considered. Irregular fluctuations also are present, caused in part by isolated events (a forest fire) and recurring but variable phenomena (spring mixing). Except possibly for the 3-yr cycle, the known sources of variability appear to operate ‘bottom-up’ through direct physical and chemical effects on the phytoplankton.