Trend prediction of carbon peak in China’s animal husbandry based on the empirical analysis of 31 provinces in China

Abstract

The rapid growth of China's animal husbandry industry in recent years has forced the industry to establish a low-carbon production model to combat climate change. However, due to China's huge demand market and long-standing consumption habits, carbon reduction in animal husbandry should be predicated on increased or at least stable output. In its subsequent efforts to achieve carbon neutrality in animal husbandry, China is expected to make accurate forecasts of the timing and magnitude of peak carbon dioxide emissions in animal husbandry. Hence, focusing on the panel data of 31 provinces in China from 2008 to 2020, this study employed a factor decomposition model to analyze the factors influencing carbon emissions from animal husbandry from four aspects, namely environmental technology, economic structure, economic scale and population size, and set up different scenarios to predict carbon emissions from China's animal husbandry from 2021 to 2030. The study found that: (1) with other affecting factors pre-determined, China’s animal husbandry industry achieves peak carbon when its per capita GDP is 180,000 RMB; (2) most provinces in China are expected to achieve the carbon peak in animal husbandry by 2030, and the country is 2029; (3) policy interventions should primarily target environmental technologies and strive to reduce carbon emissions per unit animal husbandry output by 1.2% per year after 2020 so that China’s animal husbandry can achieve carbon peak in 2029. This study is of great significance for optimizing the carbon peak and carbon neutral strategy and promoting the sustainable development of animal husbandry in China.