Trend Prediction for Cesarean Deliveries Based on Robson Classification System at a Tertiary Referral Unit of North India.

Abstract

World Health Organization proposed use of Robson Classification as a global standard for assessing, maintaining and comparing Cesarean section (CS) rates. This paper aimed to examine CS trend at a tertiary center according to Robson Ten-Group Classification System (TGCS) over three-year period (2015-2017) and to predict future Cesarean trends. This prospective observational study was conducted at a tertiary teaching institute and included 81,784 females who delivered at this hospital over three-year duration (2015-2017). The data compilation was done according to Robson TGCS. The main outcome measures were overall annual CS rates, Robson group-wise CS rates, future overall and Robson group-wise CS trend. These parameters were calculated, trend analysis was done and trend over future 3years was predicted. There were 81,784 deliveries (62,336 vaginal and 19,448 Cesarean deliveries) over the study period. The year-wise CS rate was 22.4%, 23.5% and 25.5%, respectively. The largest contribution was by group 5 followed by group 2 and group 1. Based on 3-year data, it was predicted that CS rate will increase by 0.905% annually over coming 3years. In groups 3, 4, 6, 7 and 8, predicted trend value showed an annual increase by 0.65%, 0.05%, 0.05%, 0.05% and 0.10%, respectively; in groups 1, 2, 5, 9 and 10, it showed an annual decrease of 0.45%, 0.05%, 1.50%, 0.50% and 0.05%, respectively. Increasing CS rate trend was seen over last 3years with a predicted rise of 0.905% per year. Robson groups 5, 2 and 1 were at present major contributors; however, the trend analysis predicted a decreasing trend. Trend analysis predicted annual increment in groups 3, 4, 6, 7 and 8 over next 3years, thereby suggesting need to focus on these groups as well.