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Abstract
BackgroundHIV infection continues to be epidemic of public health importance with a prevalence of 1.1% and incidence of 0.33/1000 population having low-intensity mixed epidemic. Ethiopia has adopted the 90–90-90 by 2020 target but its progress was not yet assessed. Therefore, this study aimed to assess the trend of HIV infection for the last 26 years and to predict the achievements of the 90–90-90 target.MethodsWe used aggregates of HIV/AIDS indicator data from 1990 to 2016 of UNAIDS data bases. The data were analyzed with excel and STATA. The trend line that best fits the regression was drawn, annual change was estimated and future values of HIV detection rate, coverage of antiretroviral therapy and viral suppression indicators were predicted and compared with the 90–90-90 targets.ResultSince 1995, new infection has declined by 81% and since 2002; number of HIV cases has declined by 35.5%. However, after remarkable decline for decades, since 2008 HIV incidence rate began to rise by 10% and number of new infection diagnosed each year increased by 36% among all ages and doubled among adults. ART coverage has increased by 90% among all age and tripled among pregnant women within 6 years. Nationally, 67% of people living with HIV know their status, 88% of them are on treatment and 86% of people on treatment have viral suppression. As a result, AIDS-related death declined by 77 and 79% among all age and children respectively. By 2020, 79% of people living with HIV will know their HIV status, of which 96–99% of HIV infected people will be on ART and more than 86% will have viral suppression.ConclusionAfter remarkable decline, HIV infection started to increase in the last few years among adults. With the current trend, Ethiopia will achieve the second and third 90% HIV targets, while the first target is not achievable and without achieving this overarching goal control of the epidemic will not be achieved. Therefore due attention is needed to avert the current epidemics and diagnosis of cases.
Highlights
Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection continues to be epidemic of public health importance with a prevalence of 1.1% and incidence of 0.33/1000 population having low-intensity mixed epidemic
After remarkable decline, HIV infection started to increase in the last few years among adults
Only 67% of expected PLWH know their status and 59% of them were enrolled in highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) program, while significant proportion people living with HIV were died [1, 3]
Summary
HIV infection continues to be epidemic of public health importance with a prevalence of 1.1% and incidence of 0.33/1000 population having low-intensity mixed epidemic. Ethiopia has adopted the 90–90-90 by 2020 target but its progress was not yet assessed. Since the start of the epidemic, around 76.1 million people have become infected and 35.0 million people have died from AIDS (acquired immunodeficiency syndrome) related illnesses. In 2016 there were 36.7 million people living with HIV, 1.8 million new HIV infections, and 1 million AIDS related deaths [1]. Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) contributed 76% of the total HIV-infected people, 76% of the total new HIV infections, and 75% of the total HIV/AIDS deaths in 2015 [2]. As one of the sub-Saharan country the case in Ethiopia is not different. It is characterized by a low-intensity, mixed epidemic and self-sustaining transmission with a prevalence of 1.1%. Only 67% of expected PLWH know their status and 59% of them were enrolled in highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) program, while significant proportion people living with HIV were died [1, 3]
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