Trend of annual and semiannual harmonics of sea surface temperature in the tropical Indian Ocean, 1979–2018

Abstract

In the Indian Ocean (IO), the annual and semiannual oscillations of the sea surface temperature (SST) contribute more than 80% of the total variance. It is known that the SST in the tropical IO has warmed at a rate of 0.15 °C/decade since 1979. However, such an estimate of the decadal trend of the annual and semiannual harmonics of SST remains unknown, despite being a strong component of the SST signal. Here we use a widely accepted data product (TropFlux) to quantify the annual and semiannual harmonics in the tropical IO for the first time. The northern IO has a distinctly strong semiannual cycle (1–1.8 °C), which is showing an amplifying trend (∼ 0.04 °C/decade) since 1979. Furthermore, a damping trend in annual amplitude exists over much of the IO, except along the northwestern Bay of Bengal, the Seychelles-Chagos thermocline ridge, the Persian Gulf, and the Indonesian throughflow region. The estimated damping of the annual amplitude is highest over the Arabian Sea. In contrast, the southern tropical IO has a predominant annual cycle, the amplitude of which has weakened during 1979–2018. In the north IO, net air-sea heat flux and vertical processes show a dominant semiannual harmonic oscillation similar to SST. Additionally, the annual amplitude is influential over southern IO. Horizontal advection contributes significantly along the boundary-current regions and the western equatorial IO. Our analysis of combined annual and semiannual cycles shows significant warming in the tropical IO during October–November and cooling during July–August owing to the amplification of semiannual oscillation. These changes in the SST can influence air-sea interaction processes such as cyclogenesis and monsoon.