Trend detection with non-detects in long-term monitoring, a mixed model approach

Abstract

In long-term monitoring of contaminants in biota, a common approach is to use yearly geometric means of measured concentrations in sampled individuals as a basis for trend analysis. When some or all measurements in a particular year are reported as non-detects, it is unclear how to proceed in calculating the yearly mean. I argue that by casting the problem in terms of a mixed model, non-detects can be accounted for using statistical techniques for censored data. The approach is illustrated using data from the Swedish national monitoring programme for contaminants in biota.