Abstract
The research is sponsored by Jomo Kenyatta University of Agriculture and Technology and National Commission for Science, Technology and Innovation Kenya. Abstract Globally high altitude forest regions are considered to be more prone to rapid warming. These regions have also shown great seasonal and inter annual temperatures variability. In Kenya mean annual temperatures increased by 1.0 0 C since 1960. Going by global trends it is plausible to argue that high altitude forest areas in Kenya might have shown great seasonal and inter annual temperatures variability over time. This study assessed interannual trend and variability as well as change point detection in average annual air temperature in South West Mau Forest, Kenya between 1985 and 2015. South West Mau Forest is an indigenous montane ecosystem with a tropical montane climate. Annual average air temperature over the South West Mau forest pointed towards climate warming of 0.0188 0 C per year (Kendall’s tau = 0.3677, p value = 0.0033) but with low interannual variability (CV= 0.11%). A shift in the annual average air temperature of 0.368 0 C at p= 0.0051 was detected between 1985-1998 and 1999- 2015. There was a weak positive anomaly in the annual average air temperature with a slope of 0.0192 and R 2 = 0.3074. Overall the region experienced climate warming. Keywords: Climate warming, Trend, Variability, Average temperature DOI: 10.7176/JNSR/11-16-04 Publication date: August 31 st 2020
Highlights
Global warming has attracted immense interest leading to numerous trend and variability analysis studies
Going by global trends it is plausible to argue that high altitude forest areas in Kenya might have shown great seasonal and inter annual temperatures variability over time
The results showed that 48 percent of the years had an annual average air temperature with a positive anomaly and 52 percent had an annual average air temperature with a negative anomaly
Summary
Global warming has attracted immense interest leading to numerous trend and variability analysis studies. High altitude forest regions are considered to be more prone to rapid warming as shown by studies from Nepal, China and India (Shrestha et al 1999; Liu & Chen 2000; Jaswal et al 2014). These regions have shown great seasonal and inter annual temperatures variability (Beniston 2003). Going by global trends it is plausible to argue that high altitude forest areas in Kenya might have shown great seasonal and inter annual temperatures variability over time. This study analysed trends and variability in annual average air temperature over South west Mau forest for the period between 1985 and 2015
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