Trend and Variability in Interannual Air Temperature Over South West Mau Forest, 1985 - 2015

Abstract

The research is sponsored by Jomo Kenyatta University of Agriculture and Technology and National Commission for Science, Technology and Innovation Kenya. Abstract Globally high altitude forest regions are considered to be more prone to rapid warming. These regions have also shown great seasonal and inter annual temperatures variability. In Kenya mean annual temperatures increased by 1.0 0 C since 1960. Going by global trends it is plausible to argue that high altitude forest areas in Kenya might have shown great seasonal and inter annual temperatures variability over time. This study assessed interannual trend and variability as well as change point detection in average annual air temperature in South West Mau Forest, Kenya between 1985 and 2015. South West Mau Forest is an indigenous montane ecosystem with a tropical montane climate. Annual average air temperature over the South West Mau forest pointed towards climate warming of 0.0188 0 C per year (Kendall’s tau = 0.3677, p value = 0.0033) but with low interannual variability (CV= 0.11%). A shift in the annual average air temperature of 0.368 0 C at p= 0.0051 was detected between 1985-1998 and 1999- 2015. There was a weak positive anomaly in the annual average air temperature with a slope of 0.0192 and R 2 = 0.3074. Overall the region experienced climate warming. Keywords: Climate warming, Trend, Variability, Average temperature DOI: 10.7176/JNSR/11-16-04 Publication date: August 31 st 2020