Abstract
This research aims to study the trends and patterns of average maximum temperature change data of monthly surface in Thailand during the 30 year-period from 1986 to 2015 that has already eliminated seasonal variations and autocorrelation. The data set obtained from Climatological center, Meteorological Development Division, Thailand Meteorological Department for 73 completed recording stations. The climatically regions of Thailand meteorology are divided into 5 regions: Central, Eastern, North, Northeast and South. After the process of parameter estimation using simple linear regression of average maximum temperature data that has already eliminated influences of variations, the study results showed that over the last 10 years, the northern, central, eastern, northeastern and southern regions of Thailand had trends of the average maximum surface temperature increasing by 0.164°C 0.137°C 0.127°C 0.194°C 0.068°C, respectively. For over the whole country, the average maximum surface temperature increasing by 0.141°C in the last 10 years at a significant level of 0.05.
Highlights
Global warming, a crucial environmental problem, is one of the most important issue in the world today
Autocorrelation coefficients of monthly maximum temperature in station at Chiang Mai, Nong Khai and Hua Hin where represent as Northern, North East and Southern part of Thailand respectively were investigated (Table 1)
We found that there is only 1 station with no autocorrelation, 39 stations with eliminated the autocorrelations by using the AR(1) model, stations with eliminated the autocorrelations by using the AR(2) model and stations with eliminated the autocorrelations by using the Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) model (1,1)
Summary
A crucial environmental problem, is one of the most important issue in the world today. Using annual mean, Jones et al (1999) showed that annual global surface temperatures warmed by 0.57°C over the period 1861-1997 and by 0.37°C over the period 1925-1944, the 20-year period of the greatest warming. Over both periods the warming was slightly greater in the southern hemispheres than in the northern hemispheres. Hansen et al (2006) found that the annual mean global surface temperature has increased approximately 0.2°C per decade in the 30-year period, 1975-2005. The results show that temperatures have increased in all regions, with the increases ranging from 0.091 to 0.240°C per decade
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