Trend Analysis on Prices of Sunflower in Andhra Pradesh- A Time Series Approach

Abstract

The present study made an attempt to forecast the sunflower prices in Adoni, Kurnool and Yemmiganur markets of Andhra Pradesh by using the secondary time series data for a period of 147 months with an interval ranging from Jan 2011 to Apr 2023. For this study various Growth models (linear, Cubic, Quadratic, Exponential and power models) and time series models (ARIMA and GARCH) and Hybrid Times series models were applied. On consideration of the selected diagnostic criterion like R2, RMSE and MAPE, it resulted that Hybrid time series models outperformed among the selected models for all the three selected markets. Finally, the prices of sunflower in Adoni, Kurnool and Yemmiganur market were forecasted by ARIMA(1,1,1)-GARCH(1,1), ARIMA(2,1,1)-GARCH(1,1) and ARIMA(2,1,2)-GARCH(1,1) models respectively and prices of for the month of April 2024 were estimated as 5527.7 (Rs. /Q.), 5819.70(Rs. /Q.) and 5395.04 (Rs. /Q.).. KEYWORDS :Price, Model, Sunflower, Forecast.