Trend Analysis of Temperature and Precipitation Extremes during Winter Wheat Growth Period in the Major Winter Wheat Planting Area of China

Hanjiang Nie,Tianling Qin,Shan He,Zhenqian Shen,Hanbo Yang,Zhenyu Lv,Juan Chen

doi:10.3390/atmos10050240

Abstract

In this study, the major winter wheat planting area of China is selected as the study area, with the time scale of the growth period of winter wheat (a total of 56 growth periods during October 1961 to May 2016). The significance, stability, magnitude of the trend and the average trend of the study area with eight temperature indices and seven precipitation indices of 453 meteorological stations are tested by Mann–Kendall method and Sen’s nonparametric method. The following observation can be made: (1) the cold extreme indices show strong and stable downward trend in most of the stations in the study area, while the hot extreme indices show a strong and stable upward trend, especially in the northern winter wheat planting area and the north of the southern winter wheat planting area. (2) The trends of extreme precipitation indices in most of the sites in the study area are insignificant and unstable. Only in R20mm, a significant and stable decreasing trend is shown in some stations, which is mainly located in the northern winter wheat planting area and part of the central and western regions in the study area. The results in some ways could enrich the references for understanding the climate change in the growth period of winter wheat in the region and help to formulate a better agronomic management practice of winter wheat.

Highlights

In the past century, the global climate has shown a significant warming trend, and the mean surface temperature has increased by 0.85 ◦ C during 1880 and 2012 [1]
(3) And the results of GSL analysis show that the growing season length that the climate warming process has occurred, and extreme temperature events tend to be more frequent is increasing during the growth period of the winter during the growth period of the winter wheat in the study area
These results show that the study area is undergoing a process of warming during the growth period of the winter wheat, which will shorten the growth period of winter wheat and lead to a decline in the yield [50,51]

Summary

Introduction

The global climate has shown a significant warming trend, and the mean surface temperature has increased by 0.85 ◦ C during 1880 and 2012 [1]. The intensity, frequency, and duration of extreme temperatures and precipitation events in some areas have changed. To study the change rule of extreme temperature and precipitation was gradually becoming one of the hottest topics in climate change research. In China, the changes in extreme climate are uneven both in space and time because of the large landmass and various climatic factors [6], and the extreme climate changes are crucial to the local population, economy and environment [7]. The change rules of extreme climate changes in different basins in China have been studied [8,9,10,11,12].

Methods

Findings

Discussion

Conclusion