Abstract
ObjectiveTemporal trends in source normalized impact per paper (SNIP) values for the three top-ranking nursing journals were analyzed and compared to explore whether predicting future SNIP values based on trend analysis could be an innovative service provided by librarians.MethodsThe International Journal of Nursing Studies, Journal of Nursing Scholarship, and Journal of Advanced Nursing were the three top-ranked nursing journals according to 2015 SNIP values. SNIP values for the selected journals were retrieved from the Scopus database, and extracted data were exported to Joinpoint trend analysis software to perform trend analysis.ResultsThe trend in SNIP values for the International Journal of Nursing Studies was the most stable and positive, whereas the trend in SNIP values for the Journal of Advanced Nursing was the most negative. The annual percentage change of the most recent trend line, which is the best indicator for predicting future SNIP values, was the largest for the International Journal of Nursing Studies.ConclusionsPredictions of journal metrics based on statistical joinpoint regression may not be completely accurate. Using this technique, however, a librarian can reasonably claim which journal will retain or even improve its prestige in the future and thus safely advise prospective authors on where to publish their research.
Highlights
The rapid development in information and communication technology has triggered a need for librarians to constantly adapt to the requirements of ever-changing information environments
The increasing importance of research assessment based on bibliometric indicators in acquiring project funding, academic institution rankings, career development, and institutional promotion is prompting academic institutions to measure these indicators [2, 3]
Analyzing trends in journal metrics and predicting their future values could be an innovative service provided by academic librarians
Summary
The rapid development in information and communication technology has triggered a need for librarians to constantly adapt to the requirements of ever-changing information environments. Bibliometrics is an emerging field in information science, and its increasing importance provides opportunities for librarians to develop and provide innovative services and aid their customers in an academic environment more effectively [1]. Research success assessment relies strongly on the status of the journals in which the research is published [5]. A problem with the impact factor is that it is calculated with past data; its value reflects the prestige of a journal one or two years before the current date. Authors do not know what the actual value of an impact factor will be at the time when their paper is published. Analyzing trends in journal metrics and predicting their future values could be an innovative service provided by academic librarians
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