Trend analysis of energy and climate policy environment: Comparative electricity production and consumption benchmark analyses of China, Euro area, European Union, and United States

Abstract

This study conducts a "reality check" on the electricity production and electricity consumption trends in China, in the U.S. and in the Euro area and in the EU. Most of our analyses cover years 1961–2011. The data is based on the World Bank׳s database with supplementary IEA database (2013).In this article we perform various trend analyses, which are linked to electricity production and consumption developments. These regions are major players in global climate change and climate policy. Our trend analyses indicate in many ways that China is now a global trend-setter in climate change and climate policy. Upwards sloping trends were evident in the Chinese energy economy. However, U.S. and the EU are still very important players. Trend analyses of this article indicate that the structures of electricity production and energy mixes are changing. Our benchmarking studies indicate that the role of renewables is increasing in electricity production and the role of oil-based electricity production has drastically decreased. The "Golden age" of nuclear energy in electricity production seems to be over: at least, turning points can be found in trend developments. Empirical trade-off analyses of the study verified conventional research results about high linear correlation coefficients (regression models) between electricity production and GDP as well as between population and GPD in all regions. Correlation coefficients measure the strength of association between two variables. What was interesting is that our comparative analyses revealed some remarkable differences in linear regression equation coefficients. One of them was that the coefficient between population and electricity production is much lower in China than in the U.S. or in the EU. Second finding was that the coefficient of the regression model describing linear relationship between GDP and electricity production is highest in China in comparison to the other regions.