Trend Analysis of Cattle Production in the United States, 1997 – 2019

Abstract

Since the mid-1990s, cattle production in the United States has taken a downward trend. Although the U.S. is still the biggest producer of cattle in the world, the implications of such trend on domestic and global food security cannot be ignored. This study examines this trend of cattle production in detail within the period 1997-2019, with the sole purpose of determining the factors responsible for this trend and what should be done to reverse same. The study takes a look at various variables over the time-frame which could be said to represent the factors of production – land, labor, capital and entrepreneurship and establish the relationship between them. It also includes a novel variable to the mix – degree change in temperature during the year to accommodate for the effects of global warming as an environmental factor. A simple regression model is then estimated to capture the factors that might have contributed to the variation in total cattle produced in the U.S. Findings reveal that land use, employees in agriculture and credit advances to cattle farmers are all low in the U.S., contributing to the plummeting output of cattle production. The analysis does point out that making more land and employees available will increase the production of cattle in the United States. However, higher credit flows might not guarantee improved cattle production. The study, therefore, concludes that the U.S. authorities should consider increased land use and labor supply for agricultural purposes as the means of consolidating the gains of large-scale cattle production in the U.S. The study does not consider other variables which include a shift in consumer taste or the availability or lack of water due to drought on the farm. This is a limitation of the study and makes for areas of further research. These findings will be of immense benefit to policy makers, legislators, farmers and even land use planners to be able to put in action plans that will help enhance food security especially regarding beef production, thereby ensuring the United States' place as the premier cattle producer in the world.