Trend Analysis of Area, Production and Productivity of Apple Fruit in Jammu and Kashmir

Abstract

An attempt has been made in this paper to estimate the growth trends in Area, production, the productivity of apple fruit in Jammu and Kashmir. For the present Study, Secondary data on Area, Production and productivity of apple fruit in India and the State of Jammu and Kashmir as a whole for the period from 1991-92 to 2017-18 were collected from the Department of Horticulture and the international statistical data regarding apple was obtained from the APEDA And FAO websites for the period. The data were analysed through growth rate, trend analysis and co-efficient of variation techniques to study the growth in the area, production and productivity and export of apple in the state of Jammu and Kashmir. The Area, Production and yield of Apple in India witnessed growth momentum of 1.71, 2.83 and 1.11 respectively during the overall period. During the departed decade apple industry of the country showed an overriding performance by achieving a higher trajectory in production expansion besides area and productivity. In the state of Jammu and Kashmir, the CAGR of the area has increased from 2.33 to 3.16 and the production has increased only from 3.51 to 3.83 while, the yield has decreased from 1.15 to 0.64. The estimated linear growth model for J&K's apple cultivation area shows that the annual growth rate is 3.16%. Forecasting was done for seven years from 2018-19 to 2024-25 to know the future trend in apple Area, Production and productivity in the state. This model estimated J&K’s apple cultivation area to be at 177258 hectares for the year 2020. However, there have been various fluctuations in the area and production over the years and across the states. It is highly needful to analyse the trends in the area, production, yield of apple fruit in the state of Jammu and Kashmir and taking the necessary steps to improve the apple production and productivity in India as well as in the state of Jammu and Kashmir.