Trend analysis of agricultural water supply and demand for water conservation and climate change anticipation

Abstract

Various kinds of water use are likely to exceed available water supplies and sometimes neglects water conservation which further burdens availability and supply of water. Great use of water for agriculture could be reduced by developing water-saving irrigation technology and introducing water-saving commodities. This research is aimed to identify water supply, agricultural water demand, and calculate water supply-demand balance in various planting scenarios using Verhulst Logistic Logarithm. The results of the analysis indicated that the potential of water supply in 2020 will be 21,752.48 MCM and the projection in 2050 will be 25,381.01 MCM. The total agricultural water demand will be 21,615.32 MCM (in 2020) and 20,970.03 MCM (estimation in 2050). The total water demand for one cropping will be 7,952.83 MCM and 7,772.10 MCM (projection in 2050), for two croppings 15,392.47 MCM and 14,976.32 MCM (projection in 2050), and for three croppings 21,752.48 MCM and 22,515.52 MCM (projection in 2050). The analysis of water supply-demand balance in each district area for one and two croppings in 2020 and 2050 show a surplus, whereas for three croppings, some regions showed a deficit. If the trend of water supply is known, the phenomenon of climate change can be identified and anticipated.