Trend Analysis in Sugarcane Growth in Mumias Sugar Belt, Western Kenya; for the Period 1985-2015

Abstract

The study was carried out to examine trends in the output and acreage in the Mumias Sugar belt from the period 1985-2015. We used secondary data collected from Mumais Sugar Company records for the period 1985-2015 for the study. The trend analysis of sugarcane production in the Mumias Sugar Belt is important, where sugarcane is the major cash crop and absorbs a majority of the agrarian population in the region. The study used the expert modeler, an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), to predict the output. The forecast period was 2016 through March 2021 and employed two scenarios: I) forecast with +2 harvesting age predictor modification and ii) forecast with +10 hectares predictor modification. The predicted value showed good agreement with the observed values from the series plot, indicating that the model has a good predictive ability. The application of the model revealed that the results in the prediction tables show that, in each of the six forecasted quarters, increasing the harvesting age by two months is expected to generate about 4.52 more tons of yields per hectare than increasing area harvested by 10 hectares that would decrease the yield by 0.01 tons per hectare. The study recommends research and development on sugarcane varieties that mature early, making sugarcane-based Agri- enterprises and sustainable. In addition, Mumias Sugar Company should seek profitable techniques to increase the recovery per cent, and farmers seek good management practices to increase the efficiency of the sugarcane farms in the sugar belt.