Abstract
Rainfall and temperature are climatic variables mostly affected by global warming. This study aimed to investigate the temporal trend analysis in annual temperature and rainfall in the Southern Togo for the 1970-2014 period. Daily and annual rainfall and temperature were collected from four weather stations at Atakpame, Kouma-Konda, Lome, and Tabligbo. The temperature variability was determined by the Standardized Anomaly Index (SAI) and the annual rainfall variability was determined using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). The Mann-Kendall test was used for trend analysis. Mann-Kendall statistical test for the mean annual, mean annual minimum and maximum temperature from 1970 to 2014 showed significant warming trends for all stations except Kouma-Konda where mean annual maximum temperature had exhibited non significant cooling trend (P = 0.01). For Standardized Precipitation Index in the 12-month time scale, dry tendency dominates Atakpame (55.7%) and Kouma-Konda (55.5%) while wet tendency dominates slightly Lome (50.9%) and Tabligbo (51.4%). The Mann-Kendall test revealed an increasing trend in standardized anomaly index at all the sites, prejudicial to rainfed agriculture practiced by about 90% of Togolese crop growers. The trend analysis in the climate variables indicated a change in climate that necessitates some specific actions for resources management sustainability and conservation.
Highlights
Climate is the most important factor that governs food production and causes inter-annual variability in socioeconomic and environmental systems related to the availability of water resources [1]
According to the United Nations Framework convention on Climate Change (UNFCC), climate change refers to a change of climate that can be attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and that is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods [2]
In Togo, [9] evaluated the farmers’ perceptions and adaptations to climate change and variability in maritime, plateau and savannah regions and indicated that farmers perceived high increased of temperature and decrease of rainfall. [10] reported temporal and spatial pattern of two key climatic parameters across Nigeria from 1971 to 2000 using the standardized anomaly index (SAI) which is often used for regional climate change studies
Summary
Climate is the most important factor that governs food production and causes inter-annual variability in socioeconomic and environmental systems related to the availability of water resources [1]. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), the global surface mean temperature (Tmean) has risen by 0.85 ̊C during the 1880-2012 period, which is likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations [3]. An increasing trend in air temperature has been reported in different parts of the world including the tropical region in Africa. [8] reported a significant increasing trend in temperature for all of Africa, as well as the Northern Hemisphere Africa, Southern Hemisphere Africa, tropical Africa, and subtropical Africa. In Togo, [9] evaluated the farmers’ perceptions and adaptations to climate change and variability in maritime, plateau and savannah regions and indicated that farmers perceived high increased of temperature and decrease of rainfall. Significant warming trends for most of southern Africa and few locations in Senegal and The Gambia were found for the period from 1961 to 2000 [11]
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