Trend analysis and prediction of heritage crime in China using prophet model

Abstract

Cultural Heritage is a witness to human history, and its preservation has become a worldwide consensus. However, heritage crime is still rampant, and the protection of cultural heritages still needs excellent efforts. This paper analyzes the crime pattern of cultural heritage from the time series perspective and proposes a targeted early warning framework. The trends of the four heritage crime types were summarized on weekly, monthly, annual and decadal time scales. The upstream and downstream heritage crimes were strongly correlated on the daily time scale, with 90% of years correlated on the scale of 0.01. For different provinces and different types of cultural heritage crimes, a comprehensive early warning model framework is established using a combination of Prophet model prediction and qualitative analysis, and the optimal prediction horizon is given. The analysis results of this paper provide a viable path for applying heritage data to conservation work. It helps to prevent and control heritage crimes and provides ideas for the information construction of heritage security.