Trend Analysis and Driving Factors of Vegetation Dynamics in Northern China from 1982 to 2015

Abstract

Under the background of global warming, understanding the dynamic of vegetation plays a key role in revealing the structure and function of an ecosystem. Assessing the impact of climate change and human activities on vegetation dynamics is crucial for policy formulation and ecological protection. Based on the Global Inventory Monitoring and Modeling System (GIMMS) third generation of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI3g), meteorological data and land cover data, this study analyzed the linear and nonlinear trends of vegetation in northern China from 1982 to 2015, and quantified the relative impact of climate change and human activities on vegetation change. The results showed that more than 53% of the vegetation had changed significantly, and 36.64% of the vegetation had a reverse trend. There were potential risks of vegetation degradation in the southwestern, northwestern and northeastern parts of the study’s area. The linear analysis method cannot disclose the reversal of the vegetation growth trend, which will underestimate or overestimate the risk of vegetation degradation or restoration. Climate change and human activities promoted 76.54% of the vegetation growth in the study area, with an average contribution rate of 51.22% and 48.78%, respectively, while the average contribution rate to the vegetation degradation area was 47.43% and 52.57%, respectively. Vegetation restoration of grassland and woodland was mainly affected by climate change, and human activities dominated their degradation, while cropland vegetation was opposite. The contribution rate of human activities to vegetation change in the southeastern and eastern parts of the study area was generally higher than that of climate change, but it was the opposite in the high altitude area, with obvious spatial heterogeneity. These results are helpful to understand the dynamic mechanism of vegetation in northern China, and provide a scientific basis for vegetation restoration and protection of regional ecosystems.