Abstract
This paper aimed to develop forecasting models and to assess the trends in the production of freshwater crayfish in Turkey. Different trend analysis methods (Box-Jenkins method, Şen’s innovative trend analysis, Mann-Kendall test) were compared, and different autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were generated to forecast the future trend. The results of the innovative trend analysis methodology and ARIMA models revealed that freshwater crayfish production has a decreasing trend during the study period, although there are some fluctuations. ARIMA models predicted that the production of freshwater crayfish would continue to decrease in the future period. The present paper is also the most temporally rich assessment of the crayfish production in Turkey encompassing 100+ years from 1909 to 2018. Several factors such as climate change, overexploitation, diseases, legal regulations, and fisheries management policies might affect the production amount. Therefore, appropriate policies for fisheries management and legal regulations should be planned and implemented to improve the production.
Highlights
Freshwater crayfish, which are the largest forms of decapod crustaceans contain economically important species living in the inland waters, are represented by 737 species and subspecies around the world (Crandall and Buhay, 2008; Crandal and De Grave, 2017)
Data used in this study comprises the production amounts of freshwater crayfish (Pontastacus leptodactylus) in Turkey between 1909 and 2018
Pre-whitening processes were not implemented to the data, and original raw data was used to keep the originality of the time series in the trend analysis methodology
Summary
Freshwater crayfish, which are the largest forms of decapod crustaceans contain economically important species living in the inland waters, are represented by 737 species and subspecies around the world (Crandall and Buhay, 2008; Crandal and De Grave, 2017). Freshwater crayfishes are produced in the world by using culture methods These methods vary depending on the species; it can be listed as a monoculture, alternating, extensive, and intensive. In these production routes, it is aimed to stock up individual or natural stock to natural or artificial reservoirs (Diler, 2013). Researches on the crayfish-rice polyculture are quite limited in Turkey (Berber and Kale, 2018; Berber et al, 2019)
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