Trend Analyses Revision and Global Monthly Temperature Innovative Multi-Duration Analysis

Abstract

BackgroundClimate change evidence has been documented by different authors based on the long years’ monthly temperature measurements since long back. In the literature, annual-mean and 5-year moving average time series of global mean land–ocean temperature index and meteorological station data of global annual-mean surface air temperature changes are presented with a base period including some parts as uncertainty estimates. This paper provides an innovative method for refined calculation of global warming calculation.PurposeThe innovative multi-duration trend analysis application to the global monthly temperature data for identification of monthly temperature variability leads to temperature increase identifications in an innovative manner. The purpose is to present a detailed and refined innovative trend application methodology for global temperature increment calculation.MethodsAfter the general revision of non-parametric and parametric trend methodology explanations, the innovative trend template (ITT) analysis application is presented by considering two-half and multi-duration trend possibilities in the global monthly temperature records. ResultsThe ITT methodology also presents various features of the global temperature increments during the whole record duration on monthly basis leading to a set of verbal interpretations and numerical values for each month including “Low” (minimum), “High” (maximum), and “Medium” (moderate) temperature amounts. It is proven that, on average, there is 0.9 °C and 1.78 °C monthly temperature increments for “Low” and “High” temperatures, respectively, in addition to average incremental temperature of 1.33 °C.ConclusionThe innovative trend template (ITT) methodology is explained briefly and applied to global monthly temperature records from 1881 to 2013. This new methodology provides information about “Low” (minimum) and “High” (maximum) temperature records in addition to the “Medium” transitional temperatures. First, two-half and then multi-period innovative trend analysis implementations are explained graphically, verbally, and numerically. Finally, the ITTs application indicated that the warming at global scale is at about 0.75 °C, which was determined by some other approach as 0.76 °C ± 0.19 °C (IPCC, 2007).