Tree-ring based December–February precipitation reconstruction in the southern Zagros Mountains, Iran

Abstract

We developed the first tree-ring width chronology from Quercus brantii Lindel for the period 1796–2015 in the southern Zagros Mountains, Iran, using standard dendrochronological procedures. Climate-growth relationships revealed that DecemberöFebruary precipitation has strong positive effects (r = 0.66; P < 0.01) on the species’ growth while mean temperature during the growing season has strong negative effects. Spatial correlations with Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and gridded precipitation data revealed that the chronology contains regional climate signals and tree growth variations may represent precipitation fluctuations over large areas of the Middle East. The linear regression model accounts for 44% of the actual DecemberöFebruary precipitation variance. The reconstructed precipitation revealed that over the period 1850–2015 extreme dry years occurred in 1870-71, 1898, 1960 and 1963-64, and extreme wet years occurred in 1851, 1885, 1916 and 1921 in the southern Zagros region. The longest dry period lasted 16 years and occurred from 1958 to 1973. Two-year consecutive wet and dry events showed the highest frequencies and the average length of dry and wet events were 2.9 and 3.6 years over the reconstructed period. Correlations between the long-term reconstructed precipitation and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) confirmed the effects of teleconnection patterns on precipitation in the southern Zagros region.