Tree-ring-based reconstruction of streamflow for the Zaqu River in the Lancang River source region, China, over the past 419years.

Abstract

Tree-ring width standard chronologies were created from juniperus przewalskii Kom data collected in the Lancang River Headwaters region. Statistical analysis results showed high correlation (r=0.69) between the composite tree-ring chronology and instrumental streamflow records at the Xiangda Hydrological Station during the annual September-August interval. Streamflow of the Zaqu River in the Lancang river source region was reconstructed for the past 419years. The model was stable and revealed 14 extremely dry years and 6 extremely wet years. The results showed relatively low streamflow periods occurred during 602-1614, 1633-1656, 1684-1697, 1712-1722, 1735-1753, 1817-1829, 1847-1861, 1874-1884, 1946-1959, 1961-1977, and 1990-2000. Relatively high streamflow periods occurred during 1615-1630, 1657-1678, 1698-1711, 1754-1783, 1803-1813, 1830-1840, 1862-1873, 1892-1909, and 1932-1945. Comparison with tree-ring based streamflow reconstructions and chronologies from surrounding areas provided a high degree of confidence in our reconstruction. The empirical mode decomposition analysis suggests the existence of significant periods with intervals of 2-4, 5-9, 11-16, and 26-50years. Regional comparison indicated that our reconstruction was associated with large-scale atmospheric-oceanic variability, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) index, Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index, and East Asian monsoon variation. This research provides a useful foundation for water resource planning and management guidance in the Three-River Headwaters Region.