Tree-Ring-Based Drought Reconstruction in Northern North China over the Past Century

Abstract

A tree-ring width chronology was developed from the Chinese pine (Pinus tabuliformis) in northern North China. To acquire a long-term perspective on the history of droughts in this region, the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) from August of the previous year to February of the current year was reconstructed for the period of 1903–2012 AD. The reconstruction explained 46.6% of the instrumental records over the calibration period of 1952–2012. Five dry periods (1916–1927, 1962–1973, 1978–1991, 1994–1999 and 2002–2005) and three wet periods (1908–1915, 1928–1961 and 1974–1977) were found in the reconstructed period, and most of the dry years (periods) in the reconstruction were supported by historical records. Comparisons between the reconstruction and other nearby dryness/wetness indices and precipitation reconstructions demonstrated a good repeatability and high reliability in our reconstruction. Spatial correlation implied that the reconstruction could represent regional hydroclimatic characteristics on a larger regional scale. Significant periodicities and correlations were observed between the reconstructed data and the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), which suggested that the hydroclimatic variation in northern North China may be closely connected to remote oceans. The significant and high correlation between the reconstructed series and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the eastern equatorial and Southeast Pacific Ocean indicated that ENSO may be the main factor influencing the regional climate.