Tree mortality of five major species on Hokkaido Island, northern Japan

Abstract

The mortality rates of five major tree species (Abies sachalinensis, Acer mono, Magnolia obovata, Quercus crispula, Tilia japonica) on Hokkaido Island, northern Japan were modeled using logistic regressions based on the long‐term observation of 8929 individuals in 65 permanent plots. Individual size, recent growth, one‐sided and two‐sided interactions with neighbors, climatic and topographic factors were used as independent variables in the logistic regressions, and relevant variables were selected using the stepwise method. For all species analyzed, the final models significantly explained tree mortality rates. The regression analyses indicated that individual size and/or recent growth had effects on tree mortality. A significant effect of one‐sided interaction on tree mortality was detected for three species, and a significant effect of two‐sided interaction was detected for two species. The interactions with neighbors were not necessarily competitive. For all species analyzed, climatic and topographic factors affected tree mortality. The mortality models obtained can be used for forest dynamics simulations. One ecological question was examined using these models. Species that can grow fast in forest stands with smaller basal areas tended to have high mortality rates in forest stands with larger basal areas. Some ecological characteristics of the analyzed species are described based on the results of the regressions.