Tree growth response to climate change at the deciduous–boreal forest ecotone, Ontario, Canada

Abstract

We consider the implications of climate change on the future of the three dominant forest species, sugar maple (Acer saccharum Marsh.), white spruce (Picea glauca (Moench) Voss), and balsam fir (Abies balsamea (L.) Mill.), at the deciduous–boreal forest ecotone, Ontario, Canada. Our analysis is based on individual species responses to past monthly temperature and precipitation conditions in light of modeled (general circulation model) monthly temperature and precipitation conditions in the study area for the 2080s. We then consider the tree species sensitivity to past climate with predicted conditions for the 2080 period. Sugar maple, located at its northern limit in the study area, shows the greatest potential for increased growth rates under the predicted warming and altered precipitation regime. White spruce is likely to benefit less, while the understory dominant balsam fir is likely to experience a decrease in growth potential. These projected changes would enhance the future status of sugar maple at its northern limit and facilitate range expansion northward in response to global warming.