Treatment–donation-stockpile dynamics in ebola convalescent blood transfusion therapy

Abstract

The interim guidance issued by the World Health Organization during the West Africa 2014 Ebola outbreak provides guidelines on the use of convalescent blood from Ebola survivors for transfusion therapy. Here we develop a novel mathematical model, based on the interim guidance, to examine the nonlinear transmission–treatment–donation–stockpile dynamics during an Ebola outbreak and with a large scale use of the transfusion therapy in the population. We estimate the reduction of case fatality ratio by introducing convalescent blood transfusion as a therapy, and inform optimal treatment–donation–stockpile strategies to balance the treatment need for case fatality ratio reduction and the strategic need of maintaining a minimal blood bank stockpile for other control priorities.