Travel Time Reliability of Bus Operation in Heterogeneous Traffic Conditions of Dar es Salaam City, Tanzania

Abstract

Abstract The assessment of travel time reliability enables precise prediction of travel times, better activity scheduling and decisions for all users of the road network. Furthermore, it helps to monitor traffic flow as a crucial strategy for reducing traffic congestion and ensuring high-quality service in urban roads. Travel time reliability is a useful reference tool for evaluating transport service quality, operating costs and system efficiency. However, many analyses of travel time reliability do not provide true travel variation under heterogeneous traffic flow conditions where traffic flow is a mixture of motorized and non-motorized transport. This study analysed travel time reliability under heterogeneous traffic conditions. The travel reliabilities focused on passenger waiting time at bus stops, in-vehicle travel time, and delay time at intersections which were analysed using buffer time, standard deviation, coefficient of variation, and planning time. The data used were obtained from five main bus routes in Dar es Salaam. The results indicate low service reliability in the outbound directions compared to inbound directions. They also intend to raise awareness of policy-makers about the situation and to make them shift from expanding road networks towards optimising road operations.