Abstract
Travel time reliability is very important for normal period and abnormal period especially disaster recovery. However, traditional indexes can not reflect travel time reliability in disaster areas. Thus a new travel time reliability index for disaster is proposed in this paper. The index proposed in this paper is different from usual indexes because of some special factors in disaster. Firstly, traffic capacity can be ignored because the traffic network would be controlled by transportation department. Secondly, the buffer time is difficult to estimate because traffic conditions are unknown after disaster, thus the traffic accessibility is used to build the new index for disaster recovery. Thirdly, distance of damaged roads is an important factor. The parameters of disaster scale or damage level are also discussed. However, the simulated results from this model are imperfect because some disaster areas are unpredictable and only the historical data can be use. Therefore, more factors and simulations should be considered to improve this model in the future.
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