Travel Time Prediction in Real time for GPS Taxi Data Streams and its Applications to Travel Safety

Abstract

The analysis of data streams offers a great opportunity for development of new methodologies and applications in the area of Intelligent Transportation Systems. In this paper, we propose two new incremental learning approaches for the travel time prediction problem for taxi GPS data streams in different scenarios and compare the same with three other existing methods. An extensive performance evaluation using four real life datasets indicate that when the training data size is small the Support Vector Regression method is the best choice considering both prediction accuracy and total computation time. However when the training data size is large to moderate then the Randomized K-Nearest Neighbor Regression with Spherical Distance (RKNNRSD) and the Incremental Polynomial Regression become the methods of choice. When continuous prediction of remaining travel time along the trajectory of a trip is considered we find that the RKNNRSD is the method of choice. A Real-time Speeding Alert System (RSAS) and a Driver Suspected Speeding Scorecard (DSSS) using the RKNNRSD method are proposed which have great potential for improving travel safety.