Abstract

Based on the equate-to-differentiate theory, this paper studies the paradox of preference reversal and choice reversal in traffic decision-making in parallel sections of Chengdu Metro Line No.2 and No.4. Travel decision reversals: preference reversals phenomenon (PRP) and choice reversals phenomenon (CRP) are found in the travel investigation for Chengdu Metro Line No.2 and No.4, and the reversals cannot be well explained by random error. Through experimental design of cautious control, the existence of these phenomena is confirmed. This paper establishes the judgment dimension system of option attributes, and designs three groups of psychological experiment in certain, uncertain and risk scenarios. Data analysis shows that PRP and CRP can be explained by the equate-to-differentiate interpretation. The phenomena of reversal are not due to the fact that preference and choice really reverses, but the variable strategic process. The equate-to-differentiate interpretation shows good consistency in the experiments and can predict and explain the preference and choice reversal of travel decision. At last, a comparative analysis which compares the results of the two models of the decision field theory is made and finally the conclusion is obtained.

Highlights

  • IntroductionChoice reversals refer to the phenomenon that subsequent choice (preference) changes when decisionmakers repeatedly choose the same question in decisionmaking behaviour

  • Preference reversal is a strange phenomenon of decision behaviours, expressed in the inconformity between the choice and evaluation for the choice game with roughly same expected value, but diverse incomes

  • The result showed that the preference reversal phenomenon still exists to a considerable extent, which confirmed the universality of its existence

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Summary

Introduction

Choice reversals refer to the phenomenon that subsequent choice (preference) changes when decisionmakers repeatedly choose the same question in decisionmaking behaviour. Different from the inconformity between value judgment and choice (preference) in preference reversal, the phenomenon of choice reversal is the inconformity between the previous decision result and the later one, when the decision-maker is facing the essentially same choices [11]. The research on choice reversals in recent years mainly includes that Shu Li (2005-2009) studied the choice reversals of the either-or problem in repetitive experiments under three different scenarios based on the equate-to-differentiate interpretation [13]. It is verified that the equate-to-differentiate interpretation can explain the phenomenon of choice reversals well, and in the framework of equate-to-differentiate theory, the violation of decision axioms in different domain decision problems is explained. This paper is trying to demonstrate the existence of preference and choice reversals phenomenon in the travel decision through “cautious control” and explain the travel decision reversals designs psychological experiment under the equate-to-differentiate theory

PRP and CRP
Evaluation
Equate-to-differentiate theory
Random error interpretation
Evaluation for better
Experiment
Matching
Results
A2 Total
A2 A1 A2
Comparative analysis
Conclusion
Full Text
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