Trapped in dilemma: Inverted N-shaped EKC evidence of economic growth and ecological land in a spatial spillover perspective

Abstract

The environmental Kuznets relationship between economic growth and the area of ecological land using refined data has been relatively underexplored. Previous studies on the economic growth-ecological environment relationship primarily focused on cities or larger geographical units, resulting in inconsistent findings. Using the STIRPAT model, we investigate the impact of economic growth and its decomposition effects on ecological land area, and employ the Spatial Durbin Model to empirically analyze district- and county-level panel data within the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration. Our findings reveal an inverted “N" shaped association between real per capita GDP and ecological land area, woodlands area, and grasslands area, with the second turning point located at real per capita GDP values of $179,169, $39,778, and $36,793, respectively. The strong spillover effects of per capita GDP accelerate the occurrence of the tipping point where the impact of per capita GDP shifts from positive to negative across all ecological land types. To address this, we propose strategies like delaying the second turning point, smoothing the third stage curve, and mitigating ecological service loss. These results offer valuable policy insights, not only for the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region but also for other areas grappling with the conflict between economic development and ecological land use.