Transporting survival of an HIV clinical trial to the external target populations

Abstract

ABSTRACT Due to the heterogeneity of the randomized controlled trial (RCT) and external target populations, the estimated treatment effect from the RCT is not directly applicable to the target population. For example, the patient characteristics of the ACTG 175 HIV trial are significantly different from that of the three external target populations of interest: US early-stage HIV patients, Thailand HIV patients, and southern Ethiopia HIV patients. This paper considers several methods to transport the treatment effect from the ACTG 175 HIV trial to the target populations beyond the trial population. Most transport methods focus on continuous and binary outcomes; on the contrary, we derive and discuss several transport methods for survival outcomes: an outcome regression method based on a Cox proportional hazard (PH) model, an inverse probability weighting method based on the models for treatment assignment, sampling score, and censoring, and a doubly robust method that combines both methods, called the augmented calibration weighting (ACW) method. However, as the PH assumption was found to be incorrect for the ACTG 175 trial, the methods that depend on the PH assumption may lead to the biased quantification of the treatment effect. To account for the violation of the PH assumption, we extend the ACW method with the linear spline-based hazard regression model that does not require the PH assumption. Applying the aforementioned methods for transportability, we explore the effect of PH assumption, or the violation thereof, on transporting the survival results from the ACTG 175 trial to various external populations.